Monday, August 19, 2013

India's financial crisis

- Economist

Through the keyhole
Aug 18th 2013

ON SATURDAY morning August 17th India’s top policymakers gathered at a rather obscure event—the launch of an official history of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), held in a room in the prime minister’s house in Delhi. Present were Manmohan Singh, the prime minister, and the past, present and future bosses of the central bank, among others. The day before there’d been a rout of India’s financial markets, as we described in a previous post. Here’s what I picked up at the event.
First, reality has bitten. There is a mood of distress, if not panic. This is a good thing. The economy faces “very difficult circumstances,” admits Mr Singh. While he and many of the others present held senior jobs during the previous balance-of-payments crisis, in 1990 and 1991, they have spent the past two years giving sugar-coated predictions even as the economy has slowed. Now though no one is disputing the fact that India is in trouble. Duvvuri Subbarao, the outgoing boss of the RBI, drummed in the message. “Does history repeat itself,” he asked, “as if we learn nothing from one crisis to another?”

Second, it is widely accepted that the capital controls announced on August 14th have backfired. The new rules limit the ability of Indian individuals and firms to take money out of the country and were put in place after clear signs of capital flight. However the changes have spooked foreign investors who worry that India might freeze their funds, too. The finance ministry has already tried to calm nerves. Although it probably won’t reverse the measures, the RBI is considering making it much clearer that more capital controls are not on the agenda. That would be helpful; people trust the bank more than the government.

Third, Raghuram Rajan, the incoming governor of the RBI, will assert himself sooner than expected and change the central bank’s tactics. On Friday, as markets tanked, he was in Singapore fulfilling an academic commitment that had been organised long before. He is due to take over formally on September 5th but he will be in Mumbai, where the RBI is headquartered, this week. He will try to end the impression of nervous hyperactivity that has built up in the past month. He will put his prestige on the line by trying to give a consistent and calming message to the markets: “We will not have a new policy every day.”

The rationale behind this new approach is as follows. The RBI’s existing measures might be enough to stabilise the rupee. (They include intervening in the money markets to jack up short-term interest rates, as well as the capital controls). Adjusted for higher productivity growth and higher inflation than the rest of the world, the rupee is theoretically worth, perhaps, somewhere between 55 and 60 to the dollar. So the market has already overshot a bit, offering more than 61 rupees per dollar at the weekend. And there are signs that exports are recovering, thanks to the devaluation and the recovery in the rich world. Exports grew by12% in July. India’s IT service companies, which generate foreign sales of about 4% of GDP, are expected to see an up-tick in business. A decisive improvement in the trade balance would make a world of difference.

Fourth, as the RBI calms down, the government will be expected to go into overdrive to narrow the trade deficit by fiat. By raising administered prices on imported fuel, demand could be contained. This will not be politically popular. Lower fuel subsidies will have the added benefit, though, of helping Palaniappan Chidambaram, the finance minister, hit his fiscal targets. The government will also try to end a blanket ban on iron-ore exports, which was imposed by the Supreme Court after a series of corruption scams. I’m sceptical this will work. Can the judges really be told what to do? I’ve just spoken to an expert who spent a week in July touring the mining belt in the states of Goa and Karnataka. His view is that it will take ages for the industry to crank production back up to its peak, when it was exporting ores worth $10 billion a year or so. Still, the central government will try.

Fifth, everyone wants to crack down further on gold imports—but is scared. India’s gold addiction is a nightmare; exclude gross bullion shipments into India and the reported current account deficit of 4.8% in the year to March 2013 would have been a far more manageable 2%. Accepted wisdom is that if you tighten the official rules, gold will still get into the country via smuggling, as was the case in the 1980s and early 1990s. But India’s demand for imported bullion has doubled since then, to 850 tonnes a year. It takes a lot of ingots hidden in suitcases to smuggle in that much. Taxes on gold imports have already been raised but there may be scope to raise them even further.

Sixth, the authorities are still missing a trick by ruling out the recapitalisation of India’s banks as a measure to restore confidence. Public-sector lenders that dominate the banking industry now have dodgy loans of 10-12% of the total. Almost 20% of infrastructure loans are in trouble. K.C. Chakrabarty, a deputy governor of the RBI, argues that most banks are state-backed and thus not at risk of failing. But they are viewed as radioactive zombies by investors and their rotten balance-sheets mean they are unable to lend, which might kick-start a recovery. America used its stress tests to force banks to get their houses in orderand to restore confidence in 2009. India should consider something similar. The tricky part is that the cost of recapitalising the banks might have to be borne by the government, which is already straining.

India has few good options, but the emerging plan could work. A big test will be whether the political leadership, which faces elections by May 2014, gets behind it. The urban middle class will be hurt most by the present crisis, but they are not the ones who decide elections in mainly rural India. Still, the wobbly economy may now become a bigger theme in the election campaign. That might focus minds and make it easier for the government to argue that its tough decisions are being made in the national interest.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2013/08/india-s-financial-crisis


Tuesday, August 13, 2013

Made outside India


- Economist
As growth slows and reforms falter, economic activity is shifting out of India
 Aug 10th 2013

INDIA’S diaspora of 25m people is something to behold. In colonial times Indian labourers and traders spread across the world, from Fiji to the Caribbean. A second wave of Indians left between the 1970s and mid-1990s, when the economy was in a semi-socialist rut. Migrant workers rushed to the Persian Gulf and South-East Asia, then booming. Educated folk and entrepreneurs fled to the rich world. Plenty struck gold, including engineers in Silicon Valley and Lakshmi Mittal, boss of ArcelorMittal, a giant steel firm. Often they now have little to do with India beyond sending cash to relatives and groaning as the once-vaunted economic miracle fades.
Yet alongside this distant diaspora, a network of people and places is more directly engaged with India’s economy. Its most conspicuous element is the plutocrat who owns firms in India, but like his Russian and Chinese peers shops in Paris, educates his children in America and Britain and sometimes has foreign citizenship: Cyrus Mistry, the boss of Tata Sons, India’s biggest firm, has an Irish passport. At the network’s core, however, is not the gilded elite but offshore hubs, including Dubai and Singapore, often with sizeable Indian populations and with their own economic strengths.
The idea that some things are better done abroad is hardly new. Hong Kong was a gateway to imperial and then Red China. In 1985 Yash Chopra, an Indian film-maker, led a trend of shooting Bollywood “dream sequences”—in which the hero and heroine sing amid meadows and snowy crags—in Switzerland. The Alps were easier, cheaper and safer than the more familiar location of Kashmir.
Film buffs now view Swiss dream-sequences as cheesy, but India’s big offshore hubs are more in fashion than ever. They present a mirror image of India’s red tape, weak infrastructure and graft. Dubai is a prime example. For long-haul flights Indians prefer its airline, Emirates, to their own. More than 40% of long-haul journeys from India go via a non-Indian hub, often in the Gulf. Indian airports no longer make grown men cry (Delhi’s is first rate), but few foreign airlines want to make them their base. Indian planes are usually serviced in Dubai, Malaysia and Singapore, reflecting a history of penal taxes in India and high customs duties on imported spare parts.
A stroll round Dubai’s gold souk, a glittering warren of shops and discreet offices, housing bullion worth $3 billion-4 billion, points to another specialism—trading jewellery as well as precious stones and metals. A third of demand is from India, reckons Chandu Siroya, one of the market’s big participants. Indians go to Dubai to avoid taxes at home and because they trust its certification and inspection regime.
Dubai’s ports, air links and immigration rules also make it a better logistical base than India. Dawood Ibrahim, a Mumbai mafia don, ruled from Dubai by “remote control” before eloping to Pakistan in 1994. Since those wild days legitimate Indian firms have thrived in Dubai. Dabur, which makes herbal soaps, oils and creams, runs its international arm from there. Dodsal, which spans oil exploration in Africa to Pizza Huts in Hyderabad, is based in the emirate. Its boss, Rajen Kilachand, moved from Mumbai in 2003. “Dubai is a good place to headquarter yourself,” he says, adding that a “Who’s Who” of Indian tycoons has a presence. Dubai is gaining traction in finance, too. Rikin Patel, the chief executive of Que Capital, an investment bank, says Indian firms are raising debt in Dubai to avoid sky-high interest rates at home.
Treasure Island
About 5,000km (3,000 miles) south of Dubai lies Mauritius, an island so beautiful that Mark Twain said God had modelled heaven on it. About half its people are descended from labourers brought from India when Britain ruled both places. It is the main conduit for foreign investment into India with 30-40% of the stock of foreign capital sitting in funds domiciled in the island. A 1982 tax treaty allows investors using Mauritius to pay tax at the island’s rate (which, in practice, is zero), not the Indian rate. Foreigners also like the stability of Mauritius’s rules and its army of book-keepers and administrators. Many investors also use “P-Notes”—a kind of derivative with banks that gives them exposure to Indian shares without having the hassle of directly owning them.
Sri Lanka has testy relations with India, but Colombo is a vital port. About 30% of containers bound for India go via intermediate hubs fed by small vessels, either because big shipping lines do not want to deal with India’s customs regime or because their ships are too big for the country’s ports. About half of this trans-shipment business happens in Colombo. Its importance could increase now that a big extension to the port there has just opened. The project was funded by a Chinese firm probably too polite to admit that its investment is partly based on the idea that India’s ports will never be world-class.
A roll of the dice
Sri Lanka also wants to develop a casino industry. Gambling is illegal in almost all India, so people use offshore bookies or the internet. James Packer, an Australian business dynast with a gambling empire in Macau, is said to be considering creating a casino resort in Colombo aimed at attracting Indian high rollers.
The largest hub for Indian trade is probably Singapore. It is the centre for investment banking, which thrives offshore, owing to the tight regulation of India’s banks and debt markets. Reflecting this, the global exposure to India of Citigroup and Standard Chartered, the two foreign banks busiest in India, is 1.9 times the size of their regulated Indian bank subsidiaries.
Fund managers running money in India are often based in Singapore. India’s best financial newspaper, Mint, now has a Singapore edition. At least half of all rupee trading is offshore, says Ajay Shah of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in Delhi. Investors and firms do not like India’s fiddly rules and worry that the country may tighten capital controls if its currency falls too far, says one trader in Singapore. He denies, though, that the rupee’s fall is mainly the work of speculators abroad. “The onshore guys have as much of a role,” he says.
Indian e-commerce firms often get their data crunched in Singapore, using web-hosting and cloud-computing firms, such as Google and Amazon. Amitabh Misra, of Snapdeal, says bandwidth costs less, technology is better and you avoid India’s headaches—such as finding somewhere to work, coping with state-run telecoms firms and having to wait to import hardware.
Singapore is also a centre for legal services. International deals involving India often contain clauses which state that disputes be arbitrated outside India, with its clogged courts. Singapore, along with London and Paris, has become the preferred jurisdiction. “The level of comfort Indian companies get from Singapore is unmatched,” says Vivekananda N of the Singapore International Arbitration Centre.
When India’s economy thrived, in 2003-08, so did its offshore hubs. Singapore’s service exports to India tripled. Yet these centres may sometimes be a reverse barometer. If things improve in India, activity should shift to the mainland, and vice versa. By gradually improving its ports, for example, India has convinced more shipping lines to make direct stops.
The government wants to attract activity back to create jobs and boost foreign earnings. Pride plays a role, too—it is unbecoming for a potential superpower to have outsourced vital economic functions. India has far less control over Dubai and Singapore than China does over Hong Kong. Plenty of policy statements in recent years argue that India should become a global hub for aviation, legal arbitration, diamond trading and international finance.
In the real world, however, the question is whether activity is leaving India as its prospects have dimmed. A lead indicator is the purchase of gold by Indians—a form of capital flight. Gold imports have hit $50 billion a year, almost offsetting the boost the balance of payments gets from remittances from Indians abroad.
Some service industries do seem to be shifting from India. India’s balance of trade in business and financial services has slipped into modest deficit from a surplus five years ago. The number of big India-related corporate legal cases at Singapore’s arbitration centre has doubled since 2009, to 49 last year. It is setting up a Mumbai office to win more business. Trading of equity-index derivatives has shifted—a fifth of open positions are now in Singapore and DGCX, a Dubai exchange, is launching two rival products this year. A recent deal by Etihad, the airline of Abu Dhabi, to buy a stake in Jet, an Indian carrier, should see more long-haul traffic shift to the Gulf. (Jet’s boss, Naresh Goyal, lives in London.) More rupee trading seems to be taking place offshore.
The biggest worry is that heavy industry is getting itchy feet. Coal India, a state-owned mining monopoly sitting on some of the world’s biggest reserves, plans to spend billions of dollars buying mines abroad—red tape and political squabbles mean it is too difficult to expand production at home.
Some fear manufacturing is drifting offshore. In the five years to March 2012, for every dollar of direct foreign investment in Indian manufacturing, Indian firms invested 65 cents in manufacturing abroad. Some big firms such as Reliance Industries plan to invest heavily in India, but others such as Aditya Birla are wary. Its boss, Kumar Mangalam Birla, has said that he prefers to invest outside India—an echo of his father, who expanded in South-East Asia during India’s bleak years in the 1970s.
The Gulf has seen tentative signs of Indian manufacturers shifting base. Rohit Walia, of Alpen Capital, an investment bank, says that in the past year he has helped finance an $800m fertiliser plant and a $250m sugar plant. Both will be built in the United Arab Emirates, by Indian firms that will then re-export much of the output back home. The Gulf’s cheap power and easy planning regime make this more feasible than setting up a plant in India. “It’s a new trend,” says Mr Walia.
The temptation for India is to invent new rules to keep economic activity from moving abroad. In 2012 the government tried to override its treaty with Mauritius, only to scare investors so much that it had to back down. To try to plug its balance of payments, India is tightening rules on buying gold. The country’s ministry of finance is said to be examining the shift of currency-trading offshore. The government has intervened to insist that shareholder disputes arising from the Etihad-Jet deal be settled under Indian law—not English as originally proposed.
Yet in the long run, coercing Indians and foreigners to do their business in India would be self-defeating. Some may simply go on strike and it is far better that activity takes place abroad than not at all. Any rise in the share of offshore activity is best viewed as a warning system about what is most in need of reform at home.
The biggest warning sign would be if Indians themselves started to leave. Despite some mutterings among the professional classes, that does not seem to be happening. Still, if India does not kick-start its economy and reform, more than derivative trading and Bollywood singalongs will shift abroad.
 http://www.economist.com/news/international/21583285-growth-slows-and-reforms-falter-economic-activity-shifting-out-india-made-outside

Monday, August 12, 2013

Innovative development financing

How can more resources be applied toward development in the world’s poorest countries? Recent research has pointed to some promising ideas.
August 2013 | byEytan Bensoussan, Radha Ruparell, and Lynn Taliento

Of all the efforts devoted to improving economic and social conditions in developing countries, the most prominent has been the United Nations’ Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which set targets for reducing poverty and improving education, gender equality, health, and sustainability by 2015. As is true with any type of development, meeting these targets depends on resources, and a large part of the resources devoted to the MDGs come from developed countries’ pledges for what is called Official Development Assistance (ODA). However, since peaking at $128.7 billion in annual net ODA in 2010, the annual total paid in ODA has declined for two years running, standing at $125.6 billion for 2012.1
Clearly, more funds will be needed if the development goals are to be met. Moreover, market inefficiencies—such as unnecessary transaction costs, misaligned incentives, and lack of performance measures—often prevent the financial assistance that is available from achieving desired results.

Given the level of need, the uncertainty in the general macroeconomic environment, and the pressures on all government budgets, we looked into potential financing mechanisms and sources to complement traditional ODA.2 We assessed a number of innovative ideas that we think merit further investigation and discussion. In this context, “innovative” refers to finance mechanisms that might mobilize, govern, or distribute funds beyond traditional donor-country ODA. Some have already been tried, others have not, and still others may carry new risks. The point of this article is not to recommend any specific solution but to shine some light on a collection of ideas we found particularly exciting as a way to either raise new funds or unlock value as society works to achieve the MDGs. Many of the ideas have the added benefit of creating a much-needed bridge for new actors, such as individuals, corporations, and emerging economies, to deeply integrate themselves into the development community.

In seeking out innovative sources of development financing, we looked across a wide range of potential contributors, including citizens, corporations, governments (of both developed and developing economies), and multilateral institutions. However, the reality is that even when other contributors are involved, most aid still flows through governments because they have the scale and responsibility to execute meaningful development-aid programs. Since we believe innovative financing should complement, rather than substitute for, government funding, our focus in this paper is on solutions in which governments are still a core part of the solution. However, we recognize there are also many good ideas that require minimal or no government involvement, such as citizen-focused fund-raising initiatives like Product RED or business-driven solutions such as bottom-of-the-pyramid ventures. Four ideas rose to the top when we screened our list based on the size of the opportunity (for example, the ability to unlock a meaningful level of additional financing or to meaningfully engage multiple actors), the technical feasibility of implementation within a short- to medium-term time frame, the potential to gain significant political momentum, and the existence of a clear and compelling role for government: unlocking value from diaspora flows, stimulating private-capital flows, encouraging private voluntary contributions through matching funds, and tackling sector-specific inefficiencies.

Unlocking value from diaspora flows
For years, people who have emigrated from developing countries have been sending remittances to support family and friends in their native homelands. Around $325 billion of remittances flow to developing countries every year. There are opportunities to unlock significant additional value from these flows.
First, the use of diaspora bonds could be expanded. The issuance of government bonds specifically targeted at a country’s emigrant population is a time-tested but underused way to raise money for development. For instance, the pioneers of diaspora bonds, Israel and India, have leveraged them over time to raise more than $25 billion and $11 billion, respectively.3 For sub-Saharan African countries, the World Bank has estimated that these instruments could raise as much as $5 billion to $10 billion annually, but so far their potential has been almost completely untapped.4 One could imagine exciting uses for these bonds, such as the funding of education or infrastructure. To assist this expansion, donor-country governments could give their counterparts in developing countries reliable demographic data that would facilitate the marketing of bonds to diaspora. Customizing the regulatory framework for the creation and sale of bonds in foreign countries at the international level could also help spread their use by lowering the costs of compliance across multiple jurisdictions and speed up the regulatory-approval process.

Second, data collected by the World Bank show that the average cost of sending money to a person’s home country is about 9 percent. At their 2009 summit in L’Aquila, the G8 countries made a commitment to cut the global average cost of these transactions down to 5 percent. Given the volume of annual remittance flows, each percentage point of lowered remittance costs could unlock as much as $3.3 billion per year for developing-country recipients. All players could continue efforts toward lowering these costs. For example, governments can eliminate exclusivity clauses with money-transfer providers to encourage competition, while the private sector can continue to launch mobile-phone payment systems, learning from programs in countries such as Kenya and the Philippines.

Stimulating private-capital flows
Private capital is an enormous source of global wealth that has not historically played as significant a role in development as its scale would suggest. This is not for lack of interest. Private capital is constantly seeking investment opportunities.5 However, it only commits to those prospects that meet its appetite for risk and reward. Due to a variety of factors, many opportunities in developing countries are often perceived as overly risky or uncertain for the majority of investors. Institutions that offer to guarantee portions of loans made for such investments help investors rebalance their assessments of risk and reward and subsequently unlock considerable capital into developing countries. For example, in the past decade, the World Bank has approved 28 guarantees worth a total of $1.4 billion. These guarantees have stimulated more than five dollars of private capital for every dollar spent by the World Bank.6 Yet this type of support remains a very small portion of the bank’s approach to financing in developing countries. Since the G20 summit in London in 2009, multilateral development banks have stepped up efforts to do a better job of leveraging private capital. There is an opportunity for the G8, the G20, or individual governments to use their influence and encourage multilateral development banks—and potentially bilateral agencies—to create innovative instruments that stimulate private flows. Since guarantees may be more difficult to get through national budget processes than traditional financing, a starting point could be to work on ways to address these institutional barriers.

One exciting way for private capital to contribute to development is by fueling the growth of small and medium-size enterprises (SMEs) in developing economies. Such companies are often underfunded in these regions because they typically are too small for commercial lending but too large for microcredit financing. There could be an opportunity for multiple players to collaborate in the creation of a set of financial instruments to serve this segment. Local commercial banks could provide the capital and deliver the funds when sharing some of the risk with large multilateral organizations or major foundations that provide first-loss guarantees. Donors could play a role in funding pilot programs or supporting demand-side capacity-building initiatives such as credit-scoring initiatives or skill building for entrepreneurs. One promising area to test this is the agricultural sector, a driving force of growth in many developing economies.

Two other growing sources of capital that hold many trillions of dollars of capital are sovereign-wealth funds and pension funds. Sovereign-wealth funds typically have longer investment time horizons and often have more flexibility in their investment rules than other types of investors. Although sovereign-wealth funds are not new, some recently have been forming innovative coalitions—bringing together such diverse players as Chinese funds, Middle Eastern funds, multinational corporations, and developing-country governments.
Not all sovereign-wealth funds are created equal; each has its own objectives and rules. One characteristic most of them do share, however, is that, like private investors, their investment decisions are driven by a risk-reward equation. Beyond financial rewards, many funds also seek political-security and industrial-policy dividends for their home countries. But the problem in Africa is that, at least for the time being, available capital may exceed the viable investment opportunities. While some asset classes such as infrastructure are more developed, others are not yet deep enough to attract large pools of capital. Multilateral development banks can potentially play a role by offering risk-sharing vehicles to improve the risk-reward profile and, over the long term, help foster an environment that encourages viable businesses to emerge so that capital can flow accordingly.

A new form of multistakeholder partnership intended to leverage private capital for scaling solutions to social problems is the social-impact bond (SIB). In a SIB, philanthropic funders and impact investors—not governments—take on the financial risk of expanding proven social programs. Nongovernment organizations deliver the social program to more people who need it; the government pays only if the program succeeds.
In the absence of SIBs, philanthropic donors fund pilots that demonstrate the efficacy of preventive programs, but then these programs—even though they work—are not expanded to the entire population that needs them. This is because only government has the reach and the resources to provide the multiyear funding required for scale-up. For their part, governments’ existing systems tend to focus on remediation, and fiscal constraints can make it tough for them to introduce alternative approaches. However, SIBs can facilitate the critical handoff from philanthropy—which provides the “risk capital” of social innovation by funding and testing new programs—to government, which has both the capital and policy influence to take programs to scale.

Since SIBs are a very new idea, all the potential applications have not been fully explored. However, SIBs appear best suited for behavior-change programs requiring intense case management and integrated assessment to ensure quality replication. To date, the social-impact bond is being piloted in the United Kingdom in the criminal-justice field. In the United States, New York City and the Commonwealth of Massachusetts recently announced plans to launch SIBs in the area of juvenile justice; Massachusetts also plans to launch an additional SIB to combat homelessness. The Center for Global Development is exploring how SIBs can be applied in international development.7

Encouraging private voluntary contributions through matching funds
Governments are in a unique position to encourage large amounts of voluntary contributions from private corporations and citizens by setting up matching programs. They are distinguished in having the credibility to intervene on social issues in a fair and responsible way, as well as the resources to implement matching programs at meaningful scale. For example, in 2010, the Canadian government set up a Pakistan Relief Fund that raised $47 million from individual citizens over a two-month period. This was based on a promise that the Canadian International Development Agency would match all citizen contributions of up to $100,000 each. The resulting total that went to the relief effort ($94 million) was almost five times some of the best-performing corporate matching campaigns. Government matching programs not only mobilize new resources but also, almost more importantly, engage a broader set of players in sharing the responsibility for global development. The GAVI Alliance (formerly the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization) put in place an effort to raise a total of $260 million by 2015, with pledges from the UK government and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation to match a total of about $130 million in contributions from private corporations, foundations, and citizens.

Countries could commit to establishing a national-challenge fund that matches commitments from corporations and individuals up to a prespecified limit. Corporations, in addition to contributing their own funds, could employ innovative means to engage and raise funds from their employees and customers. Governments could identify priority development topics and select eligible private-sector recipients for challenge-fund proceeds. The most powerful partnerships would be ones where private-sector players could also contribute their core capabilities beyond straight financing, such as having telecom companies offer solutions based on mobile technology.

Tackling sector-specific inefficiencies
The ideas discussed in this article focus on raising revenues, and most could technically be applied to a variety of purposes (for example, health, water, education). Countries could also find powerful ways to unlock the value of their development dollars by examining particular market inefficiencies of specific sectors that can benefit from development aid. Take health, for example. One market inefficiency is that large private-sector pharmaceutical companies have little incentive to invest in research and development for developing-country health issues. To create these missing incentives, several countries created an “advance market commitment” that provided reassurances in the market for a new pneumococcal vaccine. This was a groundbreaking approach that used dollars donated for vaccine purchase to their maximum effect.
Innovation, which is largely about thoughtful trial and error, is needed to catch up on the world’s bold development aspirations. Taking a chance with new finance mechanisms may lead to some failures, but one big success can be a global game changer. Each step along the way can help enrich the global development community by pulling in new resources and helping existing stakeholders work better together.

About the authors
Eytan Bensoussan is a consultant in McKinsey’s Montréal office, Radha Ruparell is a consultant in the New York office, and Lynn Taliento is a principal in the Washington, DC, office.



Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Setting value, not price

Article|McKinsey Quarterly


The first task is to map benefits versus price—as the customer sees them. Bear in mind that equal value doesn’t mean equal market share. The key decision: do you stay on the line of value equivalence, or get off?

February 1997 | byRalf Leszinski and Michael V. Marn
A manufacturer of high-quality medical testing equipment introduces a vastly improved version of its best-selling diagnostic device at a price 5 percent higher than that of the older model it replaces. For three months, the new model is successful, gaining rave reviews from customers and increased market share. One month later, prices in the sector collapse and the company has to discount its superior new product just to maintain its traditional market share.
A highly regarded manufacturer of commercial paper prides itself on delivering extremely consistent quality and service. That consistency notwithstanding, the company is baffled by vacillations in its market share that accompany shifts from tight to loose supply in the industry.
A consumer packaged goods company executes one of the most common business tactics—it matches a competitor's price on a large contract to supply a leading food retailer. In the months that follow, a bitter price war breaks out, destroying almost all of the industry's profitability in this product category.
These disparate cases have at least one thing in common: apparently sound marketing strategies and tactics that produced unexpected and costly results. But could they have been avoided? Here we will explore how these and other common and expensive marketing missteps might be averted by applying a discipline called "dynamic value management" to the pricing and product positioning that are at the core of what most marketers do.
"Value" may be one of the most overused and misused terms in marketing and pricing today. "Value pricing" is too often misused as a synonym for low price or bundled price. The real essence of value revolves around the tradeoff between the benefits a customer receives from a product and the price he or she pays for it.
The management of this tradeoff between benefits and price has long been recognized as a critical marketing mix component. Marketers implicitly address it when they talk about positioning their product vis-à-vis competitors' offerings and setting the right price premium over, or discount under, them. Marketers frequently err along the two dimensions of value management, however. First, they fail to invest adequately to determine what the "static" positioning for their products on a price/benefit basis against competitors should be. Second, even when this is well understood, they ignore the "dynamic" effect of their price/benefit positioning—the reactions triggered among competitors and customers, and the effect on total industry profitability and on the transfer of surplus between suppliers and customers.
To illuminate the nature and magnitude of this missed value-management opportunity, value needs to be defined properly. Customers do not buy solely on low price. They buy according to customer value, that is, the difference between the benefits a company gives customers and the price it charges. More precisely, customer value equals customer-perceived benefits minus customer-perceived price. So, the higher the perceived benefit and/or the lower the price of a product, the higher the customer value and the greater the likelihood that customers will choose that product. (We will return to this later.)

Exhibit 1

Static value management

Many marketing and strategic assessments can be made by using a simple tool called a value map, and by considering how customers are distributed within the map for a given segment.
The value map explores the way customer value and the price/benefit tradeoff work in real markets for a given segment (Exhibit 1). The horizontal axis quantifies benefits as perceived by the customer; the vertical axis shows perceived price. Each dot represents a competitor's product or service. Higher-priced, higher-benefit competitors are toward the upper right; lower-priced, lower-benefit competitors are at the lower left.
If market shares hold constant (and if you have the right measurement of perceived benefits and perceived prices), then competitors will align in a straight diagonal line called the value equivalence line (VEL). At any desired price or benefit level, there is a clear and logical choice for customers on the VEL. So competitors aligned on the VEL say in such a market that "you get what you pay for." The clarity of that choice almost defines a market in which shares are stable. (Note that while market shares might be stable for competitors along the VEL, their shares might not be equal. Again, more on this later.)

Exhibit 2

If, however, market shares are changing, then share gainers will be positioned below the VEL in what is called a "value-advantaged" position. Competitor A in Exhibit 2 is value-advantaged and should logically be gaining market share. If a customer is searching for a product in the benefit range of A and B, then he or she would be more likely to choose A, since A provides the same level of benefits as B but at a lower price. Likewise, if a customer were searching for a product in the price range of A and C, he or she would probably choose A over C, since A provides greater benefits than C but at the same price. So A, positioned below the VEL that B and C reside on, offers more customer value than B or C, and therefore more customers prefer it.
The opposite is true for competitor E, which finds itself in a value-disadvantaged position above the VEL. Competitor E will be a share loser if the value map has been constructed properly.
While the marketing concepts that underpin the value map are basic, advanced market research techniques (conjoint analysis, discrete choice analysis, and multi-staged conjoint analysis, for example) allow an accurate quantification of the perceived benefit dimension and its tradeoff against price. These advances make the effective application of value maps easier than ever for marketers. That said, examples abound of costly positioning errors that could have been avoided through the use of this tool.

Exhibit 3

Illustrative case: Alpha Computer Company
The Alpha Computer Company's experience illustrates the value map's power, even when applied in a simple, static fashion. Alpha Computer supplied minicomputers for use primarily as servers in network applications. Alpha prided itself on its engineering skills and ability to deliver high levels of technological performance at reasonable cost. In an attempt to diagnose unexpectedly poor market acceptance of its new line of minicomputers, Alpha created a value map that reflected its perception of the price/benefit positioning of competitors Ace Computer and Keycomp, and itself (Exhibit 3).
Alpha believed customers chose minicomputers on the basis of two technological attributes: processor speed in MIPS (millions of instructions per second), and secondary access speed, that is, how quickly the computer accessed data from an external storage device such as a hard disk drive. Ace Computer was the premium competitor: it had the highest processor speed and secondary access speed, but also the highest price. Keycomp not only had slower processor speed and secondary access speed than Alpha but was also priced 10 to 15 percent higher. So, Alpha thought that Keycomp was value-disadvantaged and that Alpha itself was value-advantaged.
If Alpha's perception of the value map in Exhibit 3 were correct, then Alpha should have been gaining market share and Keycomp losing it. The opposite was occurring, however, and Alpha's managers were baffled. They thought their product was superior to Keycomp's at a lower price, and they could not understand why it was not a huge success.
Alpha's problem was a common one. It did not understand the customer-perceivedattributes that really drove customer choice of minicomputers. Alpha's marketing department commissioned research to try to confirm its hypothesis that processor speed and secondary access speed were indeed the most important features. Sixty buyers were questioned about their criteria for selecting a network minicomputer supplier.
Much to Alpha's surprise, processor speed and secondary access speed ranked only fourth and sixth on their list. Software and hardware compatibility, perceived reliability, and quality of vendor technical support ranked above raw processor speed. Even quality of user documents (the manual that accompanies the hardware) ranked above secondary access speed.
As it turned out, processor speed was indeed important, but most customers had a minimum processor speed requirement that all competitors easily exceeded. However, the nature of most network applications made secondary access not that important. In fact, Alpha was understood by customers to be slightly better than Keycomp on processor speed and secondary access speed, but these features just did not matter that much to them.
The research also showed that Keycomp was highly rated on compatibility, reliability, vendor support, and user documents. Alpha, on the other hand, fell short on these. Its operating system software and hardware plug configuration created compatibility problems for many customers. Some remembered reliability problems with an earlier generation of Alpha's minicomputer that tainted their perception of its new product. Alpha's technical support was considered difficult to get hold of and its user documents were seen as the weakest in the industry.

Exhibit 4

Exhibit 4 shows how the value map was redrawn to reflect customers' perceptions of benefits and performance rather than Alpha's. It showed that Keycomp performed so well on the attributes most important to customers that, despite its higher price, it was value-advantaged and therefore justifiably gaining market share. Conversely, Alpha performed so poorly on attributes most essential to customers that, despite its low price, it was still value-disadvantaged and predictably losing share.
The insights from this properly constructed value map prescribed a clear course for Alpha. It mounted a crash program to correct the important attributes on which customers had rated it so poorly. A minor rewrite of operating system software and a simple redesign of the hardware plug configuration fixed the compatibility issue. The company then mounted an aggressive market information campaign to demonstrate the improved reliability of its latest model. Additional service representatives and toll-free access lines were put in place to enhance technical support, and user documents were redrafted.

Exhibit 5

The results are shown in Exhibit 5. In only six months, Alpha increased customer-perceived benefits so much that it was able to increase its price by 8 percent and still gain its fair market share. The price and volume increase more than doubled Alpha's operating profits.
The Alpha Computer case illustrates several important points about value management:
• The key to success often resides in gaining a clear understanding of the real attributes driving customer choice and their relative importance.
• "Softer," nontechnical attributes (perceived reliability, quality of vendor support, ease of doing business) are often as important as or more important than precisely measurable technical features.
• Trusting internal perceptions of which attributes drive customer choice can be a fatal mistake; rely on customers for this critical information.
The case also shows the opportunities value maps offer value-disadvantaged companies to understand their markets better. Another case, that of car maker Mazda's experience with its Miata sports model, demonstrates the kind of opportunity that a value-advantaged company can easily forgo if it does not fully appreciate its position (seesidebar, "US economy sports car market, 1990").

Exhibit 6

Distribution of customers on the value map
In discussing the stability associated with a position on the VEL, and the effects of competitive moves away from it, we have implicitly assumed that all positions along the line are equally attractive. This is not the case. Even for a well-defined segment, customers are not spread evenly along the line; if they were, every competitor on the VEL could be expected to have the same market share. Sometimes this can be explained by historical reasons; mostly, however, it is due to the distribution of customers along the VEL (Exhibit 6).
History plays an important role: how long a competitor has held its position with customers often explains large market share differences among companies with otherwise the same value proposition. This phenomenon, also called "order of entry," can be seen in its extreme form in deregulated utilities. A new competitor offering similar or even slightly better value than an incumbent telephone or electricity company will not provoke the significant changes in consumer purchasing that might be expected.
A more important and probably more common explanation of market share differences among competitors on the VEL is the distribution of customers along this line. Typically they are not distributed evenly, but clustered. There are several reasons for this. Sometimes consumers are not equally aware of the true nature and availability of competing products. Companies might use different channels to reach consumers, or their salesforces might not adequately communicate benefits to customers. If so, a gap can exist between customers' perceptions of a product's benefits and the benefits that it actually delivers.
Even in a perfect world, consumers would be unevenly distributed along the VEL because they do not necessarily view benefits and prices in a linear way. There are benefit-bracketed customers who explicitly want minimum or maximum benefit levels and find positions on either side unacceptable. Market research shows that break-points exist for some products and services at which a small increase in the benefits offered will lead to a large increase in the value a customer perceives. Some buyers of automotive components, for example, will not accept delivery reliability below a minimum level. Some computer buyers, on the other hand, do not value additional memory beyond a certain level because existing memory more than satisfies their needs.
A second group is price-capped customers who are unwilling to spend more than a fixed amount for a particular product or service. The price of the average home PC has held at about $2,000 for several years, even though performance has improved sharply. This could indicate that there are price-capped customers at around this level who are unwilling to spend more even if they could get more features. Only customers who fall into neither category, benefit-bracketed or price-capped, are actually willing to consider the full range of tradeoffs along the VEL.
Understanding volume distribution along the VEL is therefore crucial to making an intelligent decision about product position. In many cases, however, it is poorly understood, leading to wrong decisions. Typical mistakes are:
  • Positioning an apparently competitive product at a low-volume part of the VEL and not getting the expected volume gains. A maker of metal-coating machinery positioned a new product technically half way between two competing products, hoping to pull in customers not entirely satisfied with these. What it had not realized was that there was no significant volume between the two extremes, because each answered a specific speed requirement of downstream customers. Failing to understand that there was no demand for a medium-speed machine, even one that was competitive on technical specification and price, forced the manufacturer to take a multimillion-dollar writeoff.
  • Positioning a product too high or too low on the VEL, thereby inadvertently excluding a large portion of price-capped or benefit-bracketed customers. The drastic fall in demand for one company's supercomputers is an example of this. Even though the company's ever more powerful machines remained on the VEL, there was no longer a customer imperative for all that processing power to be concentrated in one machine, as more broadly distributed processing had become preferred by most users.

Dynamic value management

Alpha Computer and Mazda Miata illustrate the pitfalls of failing to understand the "static" value positioning of a product or service. But getting a product to the right position on a static value map is only part of managing value effectively. Unfortunately, neither competitors' positions on a value map nor customers' perception of products and suppliers are frozen in time. Value maps are not static but dynamic, constantly changing in important and often predictable ways.
Any change in product positioning by one competitor, be it cutting price or improving features, will lead others to move, either to preempt shifts in market share or to react to them. We apply the term "dynamic value management" to the discipline of managing price/benefit positioning not just in a static fashion, but with explicit and thoughtful consideration of likely changes in competitive value positions and customer value perception. Companies that master this discipline can reap huge rewards and avoid equally huge pitfalls.

Exhibit 7

Illustrative case: MTE
MTE is the manufacturer of high-quality medical testing equipment mentioned at the beginning of this article. Its primary product was a blood diagnostic testing machine used in high-volume hospital laboratory applications. MTE was the recognized premium supplier (with the highest price and benefits) in a stable market that included three other leading competitors (Jackson, PZJTech, and Labco) positioned squarely on the VEL (Exhibit 7).
As is often the case, MTE, as the premium supplier, was the real innovator in this market. The improved version of its blood diagnostic testing machine was more accurate and had faster testing cycle times. But MTE was in a dilemma over how to price its terrific new model. Research showed the added benefits would justify a 10 percent price increase and still keep the model on the VEL—that is, MTE would hold its market share. But, equally, it could keep the price the same and position the new model in a highly value-advantaged position in the hope of gaining significant market share.
MTE decided on a compromise, raising its price by 5 percent, a meaningful increase that still kept it in a value-advantaged position (the dotted circle in Exhibit 7). The response was instant and positive. Customers recognized the 5 percent increase was a small premium to pay for enhanced accuracy and cycle times. The machine sold well and immediately increased MTE's share of the market.

Exhibit 8

This success, of course, was at the expense of Jackson, PZJTech, and Labco, none of which had the expertise or resources to introduce products to rival MTE's new model. Faced with falling sales, they took the only measure they could to defend their market shares—they lowered their prices by at least 5 percent (Exhibit 8). The market shares of all four companies quickly returned to their previous levels, but at the lower prices. As Exhibit 8 shows, the VEL had simply shifted downward and MTE's value-advantaged position was essentially nullified. The lowered VEL was good for customers because they got more for their money, but the suppliers got less for their products. It represented a wholesale transfer of market surplus from suppliers to customers.
Could MTE have managed the value dynamics of this situation better? Possibly. If it had raised the price of its new model by 10 percent and positioned it on the existing VEL, it would have held its traditional share but at a 5 percent higher price. Jackson, PZJTech, and Labco, experiencing no loss of market share, would probably not have reacted at all. Industry prices would have been maintained, and MTE's profit would have risen significantly.

Changing your position in a dynamic world

Marketing managers have two basic options for improving their products' position, regardless of whether they are in a proactive or reactive situation. They can reposition their product along the VEL, or move off it. These different moves engender very different outcomes—different competitor and customer reactions and different prices, volumes, profits, and risks.
Repositioning along the VEL
Repositioning a product along the VEL, usually a less aggressive move, requires a company to understand where customer clusters are on it, and how other competitors are positioned in relation to them. The decision of whether and how far to move should include the following steps:
Understanding and weighing the risks and opportunities. Repositioning a product is likely to lose some customers who preferred the old positioning. Equally, it will gain customers who prefer the new positioning. Failure to understand this tradeoff could lead a company to surrender a good customer franchise in exchange for a reduced, and probably more competitive, new franchise.
Being smart about choosing the right attributes to vary. Customers do not consider all product attributes to be equally important; there is therefore more "bang for the buck" in changing some attributes rather than others. The knack is to select the features that will attract new customers without losing old ones, that have the greatest impact on customers, and that the company can provide cost-effectively.
Knowing what price change is appropriate for a given attribute change. If the aim is to stay on the VEL, any change in benefits must be accompanied by a price change. Not increasing the price enough will force competitors to match the new positioning, leading to an unwanted industry price decline (as with MTE); raising the price too high will lead to a volume loss. Market research tools such as conjoint analysis can determine the magnitude of change required.
Choosing those changes least likely to provoke undesirable competitive reactions. If the repositioning is successful, or looks as if it will be, competitors will react. The likeliest, and least desirable, reaction is a price cut, which often leads to price cuts across the industry and lower profits for all. One manufacturer of medical supplies always reacted to competitors' price cuts by improving benefits. Every time a competitor dropped its price, the supplier countered with an improved version of its product at the same price, but on the new VEL. In this way it gained a distinctive market position, offering increasingly superior benefits over competitors that chose to move only along the price dimension.
Choosing the new position along the VEL. There are two options: either to move to a new position within the extremes defined by current competitors, or to move to a new position beyond the current extremes. There are differences in risk and potential competitive moves between the two:
  • The success of a new positioning within current competitive extremes depends on locating the right customer concentration and standing out from competitors. As this approach seldom expands a market, competitors will probably react to their declining sales.
  • Moving to a new position along the VEL outside the existing extremes can expand a market. While the upside opportunities can be greater (and the threat of retaliation lower), success depends on a thorough understanding of the size and needs of the latent demand that the new product or service is designed to meet.
Moving off the VEL
A move off the VEL into value-advantaged territory might seem attractive on the surface. As the experiences of many companies show, however, such a move requires an even better understanding of the dynamics, risks, and opportunities than do moves along the VEL.
What is different about moves off the VEL? A repositioning along the VEL is likely to threaten only one or two neighboring competitors currently on the line. Moving below the VEL often threatens all competitors, because such moves usually define new and lowered VELs that force them to reconsider their own positions. Only rarely does the VEL move upward; to do so would require customers to accept the actual value reduction and most suppliers to move in the same direction.

Exhibit 9

When a product is repositioned below the VEL, its "horizon" of potential customers grows (Exhibit 9). Take, for example, an electric drill whose power was increased but which was sold for the same price. The new product appeals not only to customers who initially bought it, but also to those who had previously paid more for a drill with the higher power rating.
Just moving off the VEL to expand the horizon of customers does not guarantee success, however. Market research must first establish that the expanded horizon does indeed include new concentrations of customers, not just empty space.
Likely competitive reactions to moves off the VEL
In today's highly competitive markets, rivals seldom passively accept volume or market share losses. They usually react by trying to improve their products by selectively adjusting attributes, or by dropping price. How they will react is a function of a number of parameters, including:
The type of change that set the whole process in motion. The typical reaction to a competitor's move is to try to counter along a similar axis. If the salesforce reports massive price cuts by a competitor, they will want to reciprocate. If a competitor introduces a new service, the salesforce will want to offer something similar. A first mover's repositioning along the benefits axis tends to damage profits less than price reductions would. It is also easier to retract benefits that are rejected by the market or are uneconomic to provide, than to try to raise prices after a round of reductions.
Competitors' strategic mindset. The degree of volume and profit pressure a competitor is under and its understanding of the economics of price changes (for example, how price and volume trade off against profit) will drive the type of reaction it makes.
Even in commodity-like industries, there are examples of manufacturers successfully improving their products and services rather than cutting prices. In a US specialty chemical segment, for example, the two leading companies have about 40 percent of the market. They and their customers recognize that there are no real technical differences between the two suppliers' products. So when one competitor increases its support services, the other improves its services too. While the industry is competitive, and the level of service high and rising, prices have also risen and profits have remained strong. In the past five years, neither leader has reacted to a competitor by reducing its price—a move that would surely have made the industry less profitable.

Exhibit 10

Effects on demand and volume distribution
Competitors' behavior can actually shift the distribution of demand along the VEL (Exhibit 10). As the line is shifted downward through improved combinations of price and benefit, it is not automatic that the "old" pattern of customer distribution follows suit. Some customers might be benefit-bracketed, others might use the changes to rethink their own price/benefit tradeoffs, and, finally, new offers could stimulate latent demand.
If the distribution of demand changes, a shift off the VEL will not always bring the desired volume increase. The established manufacturers in one consumer durable industry assumed most customers were price-capped, and therefore had not offered increased benefits. But when a new competitor introduced a new product at a significantly higher price, 30 percent of the volume shifted to that new product. Some consumers had been looking for more benefits after all.
A move off the VEL has to be large enough for customers to notice and attractive enough to make them want to try the repositioned product. Marginal moves often backfire. If consumers do not perceive enough difference to make them switch supplier, but competitors, which follow such moves closely, decide to copy it, the VEL can quickly drop without affecting market shares, but lowering price and profit.
In the case of a company that installed heating equipment, the information that its key competitor had cut the cost of installation labor by 5 percent led it to cut its own price too. Unfortunately, this company did not adequately consider the basis on which architects and contractors compare bids—that is, the total installed costs. The selective 5 percent drop in labor reduced the total installation cost by less than 1 percent—too slight a difference for the market to notice.
Moving off the VEL therefore requires two decisions about the direction and the distance:
  • Direction. What are the customer volume elasticities of moves along the price axis and the benefit axis (by attributes)? Do I want to increase my benefits, lower my price, or both?
  • Distance. How far do I have to move from the VEL to expand my horizon of customers sufficiently? How far do I have to move to differentiate myself from competitors in the eyes of a group of potential customers? How strong will competitors' reactions be? How many additional benefits can I afford to deliver and what price cut am I willing or able to absorb?
Moving below the VEL is always a risky strategy that can, if executed well, reap some benefits. In many cases, however, too little thought is given to what customers actually want, how competitors will react, and how demand might change as a result of competitors' moves. This negligence can lead to profit declines where once there were high hopes.

Using dynamic value management to respond to external changes

Dynamic value management can also be a powerful tool to help prescribe reactions to changes in competitive position or customer needs. A competitor's actions can set in motion the same set of dynamics. Dynamic value management is as useful in determining reactions to such moves as it is in initiating them.
Competitors' moves
Being on the receiving end of a competitive move demands an approach similar to the proactive stance above. It also requires a cool head. If the salesforce is sending panicky messages about competitive price cuts, pressure is created to act quickly. In most cases, the easiest lever to pull in the short term is price. And in all too many cases, this would be a mistake. A series of thoughtful decisions using the dynamic value-management approach can help formulate a more effective and less costly response. A set of questions should be answered:
  • Do customers perceive the competitor's move as a move off the VEL? To find out, ask the customer. Too often this question is answered hastily and wrongly on the basis of hearsay from the field. If the move is not perceived to be a wholesale jump to a new VEL, there may be no need to react.
  • If the competitor has moved off the VEL, has its "horizon" expanded sufficiently to draw in new customers? If market research shows it has not, again there is no need to react.
  • If new customers are buying the competitor's offering, are they our customers or somebody else's? The answer to this question determines not the need for a reaction, but the speed and extent of it. If the primary threat is to somebody else's customers, let them react. All competitors will be likely to react eventually, but timing is important. A gradual cascade of reactions not only will prevent panicky overreactions, but can also create opportunities to observe informative customer buying behavior.
  • If a reaction is needed, how strong should it be? Should it be a surgical strike on one product, channel, or market, or across the board? Should it entail price changes, benefit changes, or a combination of both?
Cyclical markets
In cyclical industries, the value map can change not only because of competitors' moves, but also because of changes in customer needs over the course of the cycle. The following case illustrates the enhanced challenge of dynamic value management in highly cyclical businesses.
Illustrative case: Pace Paper Company
The Pace Paper Company produced high-grade paper for business forms, brochures, and corporate annual reports. Pace and its two main competitors, Marco Paper and Valentine Paper, sold directly to large regional and national printing companies. Demand for this high-grade paper tended to vary wildly with the overall economic cycle.
Pace produced paper of unsurpassed quality and consistency and provided equally consistent delivery service. But it found itself gaining market share in down markets when there was excess supply and losing it sharply in times of tight supply. Given its consistency and quality throughout the economic cycle, Pace could not understand the drastic market share shifts it regularly experienced.

Exhibit 11

The problem was that while Pace stayed the same, customers changed through the cycle. Exhibit 11 shows the value map for this market at different stages of the cycle. At the bottom of the cycle (when supplies were plentiful), customers had no problem obtaining enough paper. They therefore demanded high and consistent quality so that printing jobs would run efficiently through their plants with minimum rejects. Order lead times (the number of days between an order being placed and the paper being delivered) and order fill rates (the percentage of the total order carried on the first shipment) did not much matter, since printers usually had ample safety stocks of paper in their own warehouses. Despite being slightly higher priced than Marco and Valentine, Pace's paper quality and consistency were so superior that it was value-advantaged in times of excess supply and gained market share—as shown at the lower left of the value map in Exhibit 11.
As supplies tightened, however, printers often found their stocks depleted. They became increasingly concerned about running out and having to shut down their printing plants temporarily. They therefore relaxed quality and consistency requirements in favor of delivery performance. As the value map at the upper right of Exhibit 11 shows, paper quality and consistency slipped to third place behind order lead time and order fill rate. Valentine Paper could not match Pace's quality and consistency, but its order lead times and fill rates were better than Pace's. The result was that in times of tight supply, Valentine would shift to a position of value advantage (and thus gain market share), while Pace would slip to a value-disadvantaged position (and, of course, lose share).
Armed with the insights provided by the value maps in Exhibit 11, Pace's managers embarked on a project to determine how they might improve their order lead times and fill rates in times of tight supply. They discovered that if they relaxed their product consistency slightly (in a way that was almost imperceptible to customers), they could increase plant throughput enough to cut order lead times, increase order fill rates, and return to value equivalence in tight markets. When supplies loosened, Pace reverted to its original level of paper consistency to reinforce its traditional value-advantaged position. This fine-tuning over the course of market cycles enabled Pace to maintain its share in tight markets without cutting prices or jeopardizing future positioning in down markets.

Looking ahead

With product life cycles shrinking (measured in months rather than years in the computer industry, for instance), customers becoming more sophisticated and demanding, and tougher local and even global competitors emerging in most markets, value maps are shifting at faster rates than ever. Fortunately, advances in market research techniques make the execution of effective dynamic value management easier than ever.
The discipline of dynamic value management not only promotes sustainably improved market performance and profitability, but also yields a number of attractive side benefits, including:
  • More genuine closeness to customers, thanks to a richer, more externally driven understanding of the benefit attributes that really matter to customers
  • An enhanced understanding of competitors: their strengths in the eyes of customers, their strategies, and their likely reactions to price and benefit moves by your company
  • More integrated product/market strategy formulation, where the linkages between price, benefit delivery to customers, competitor capabilities, and changing customer preferences are explicit.
The payoff for getting dynamic value management right has probably never been higher; the consequences of getting it wrong, never more devastating. For a growing number of companies, dynamic value management is providing a compass for navigating the increasingly unstable seas of change and uncertainty that challenge most marketers today.

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